Monday, October 15, 2007

Here they come... Fuel cost predictions.

"We're in a world of triple digit oil prices for the foreseeable future"

So says Jeffrey Rubin of the Canadian investment bank CIBC.

He goes on to say: "Triple digit prices is not a spike, triple digit oil prices is what is going to be required to maintain, let alone grow, world oil supplies."

I've always bet on the opposite side of the market for the last four years. If I make a bet about petroleum markets it consistently goes the opposite way. I am the worst petroleum economist the world has ever seen (I'm glad I saved myself the cost of an econ grad-school).

I was drawn to biofuels (biodiesel in particular) because of the low carbon and domestic aspects. I've always considered it a super-premium product similar to higher end coffee and organic produce. A product that's value distinguished it from a pure commodity market.

I therefore have always focused on avoiding a commodity market and told myself it was for safety's sake. To protect myself and true biofuel supporters from the eventual market inversion.

I am breaking with my tradition. For once I'm going with the obvious trend of upwardly bound prices and tighter supplies (given new information I won't go into here). Something tells me for the first time we might unexpectedly see motor-fuel prices trend downward.

For a long while there I predicted oil would never stay above $40 a barrel for long. For a long while I predicted expanding Asian refinery capacity and oil shale/tar sand production to enter the US pushing prices down.

As you've obviously guessed I've been long for as long as I've been doing biofuels.

Here is the most recent credible prediction of ever more expensive petroleum. I was tipped off by the Cleantech Blog I recently found as well. Worth the bookmark to say the least.

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